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Efficient Estimation of First Excursion Failure of Dynamic Systems by Probabilistic Re-analysis

机译:用概率重新分析有效估计动态系统的一次偏移

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In design of real-life systems, such as an offshore wind turbine, there are significant uncertainties in the excitation. Therefore, it is necessary to evaluate the reliability of a system for different probability distributions of the input variables that are consistent with the available evidence. This is usually accomplished by Monte Carlo simulation, which is computationally expensive or even impractical for large-scale systems. This paper presents a methodology to assess efficiently the probability of first excursion failure of structures under random, dynamic loads, which are represented by stochastic processes, for different power spectra. We achieve that by reweighting the results calculated in one simulation. We demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed method on two examples. The first involves a linear, one degree of freedom beam under random, dynamic loads. The second example involves an offshore wind turbine under dynamic wind and wave loads. The probability of failure for loads generated by a sampling spectrum is calculated. Then, the probability of failure for different spectra is estimated by using re-analysis. We compare the results with those from Monte Carlo simulation to validate the method and demonstrate its efficiency.
机译:在诸如海上风力涡轮机等现实系统的设计中,励磁存在很大的不确定性。因此,有必要针对与可用证据一致的输入变量的不同概率分布来评估系统的可靠性。这通常是通过蒙特卡洛仿真来完成的,这在计算上是昂贵的,甚至对于大规模系统来说是不切实际的。本文提出了一种方法,可以有效地评估结构在随机,动态载荷(随机过程表示)下对于不同功率谱的首次偏移破坏的可能性。我们通过对一次模拟中计算出的结果进行加权来实现这一目标。我们在两个示例上证明了该方法的有效性。第一个涉及在随机,动态载荷下的线性单自由度梁。第二个示例涉及动态风和波浪载荷下的海上风力涡轮机。计算出由采样频谱产生的载荷失效的概率。然后,通过重新分析来估计不同光谱的失效概率。我们将结果与蒙特卡洛模拟的结果进行比较,以验证该方法并证明其效率。

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