A Novel Application of Risk Analysis Methods to Evaluate the Future Viability of Two Large Concrete Stormwater Detention Tanks

摘要

Many aspects of geotechnical design, such as the analysis of slopes using slip circles and the evaluation of imposed earth pressure , whether active, passive or at-rest, can be made fairly precisely. These lend them selves to the application of safety factors for use in design. However, problem s involving groundwater flows and seepage often require an understanding of the secur ity of the structure with respect to resistance to soil ero sion. Such evaluations are com plex and necessitate the use of quantitative risk analysis m ethodologies to provide an estim ation of failure probabilities involving groups of experi enced engineers providing subjective judgement through elicitation panel methods. The paper describes the appl ication of the Q uantitative Risk Analysis (QRA) approach using event trees to assess th e piping failure risk around two m assive submerged, underground, concrete storage tanks in the UK. This process highlighted the most significant risks, their potential mitigation and the likelihood o f the risks actually occurring in terms of a "Probability of Failure" within a pa rticular time scale.