TRACKING POTENTIAL TRENDS IN THE DISCHARGE OF STREAM FLOW INTO LAKE MICHIGAN

摘要

The main objective of this research is to examine the trends in the stream discharges into Lake Michigan. It is suspected that the decreasing levels of Lake Michigan may be augmented by the decrease in the inflow to the lake. Thus, this research aims to conclude whether climate change has affected the streams that drain into Lake Michigan. Ultimately, 18 streams that drain into Lake Michigan were chosen for analysis, with daily records ranging from 1967 to 2009. The non parametric statistical method used for evaluating the existence of trends will be the Mann-Kendall (MK) test. This is a widely-used statistical tool that tests for trends in any set of time-series data. The conclusions of the MK analysis are then to be verified using a clustering analysis using Self-Organizing Maps (SOM). The final results showed that the Mann-Kendall test revealed no trend, while the SOM analysis showed a decreasing regional trend in few clusters.