Monte Carlo Analysis of the impacts of high renewable power penetration

摘要

This paper presents an initial analysis of the impacts of large-scale integration of diverse renewable power sources on an existing power system. Using Monte Carlo Analysis (MCA), numerous games are run with varying penetration levels to examine security of supply for a realistic test system. The analysis uses the WSCC/WECC 179-bus test system to determine the feasibility of combining high levels of wind, solar, and ocean wave generation with existing base generation and loads. For the US Pacific Northwest (PNW) wind, solar, and ocean wave generation have complicated probabilistic relationships with each other that are functions of time and geographic separation. This paper uses actual wind, solar, and wave data to generate time-dependent (hourly) probability mass functions (PMF) for each generation type for each month of the year. These PMFs are then used in the MCA to determine the security of the system. The use of a combination of wind, solar, and wave generation provides synergistic opportunities to lessen the impact of large-scale variable renewable power generation on transmission congestion, reserve requirements, and security of supply. The research shows that placement of renewable sources is important to increasing penetration and that there are critical penetration levels where grid security rapidly decreases.