'Hands On - Hands Off': Centralized vs. Decentralized Management of Economic Systems by Nonlinear Time Series Analysis

摘要

This study is proposing a semi-quantitative, unbiased "hands on - hands off" partition of the economic systems on the bases of whether they are or are not exhibiting structure as revealed by non linear time series analysis. The analysis is performed on the corresponding exchange rate time series with respect to the United States Dollar. The structure is related to the impact of the ongoing economic crisis upon several economic systems. By assessing the effect of the financial hit as "recession / no recession", the analysis of 26 economic systems has revealed that almost all systems suffered financial shock but not all financial shocks were followed by economic recession. The evidence of the financial shock is addressed in terms of the specific quantities of time series analysis i.e. flatness and Holder exponent. Under the assumption that the "hands on" economies are more robust against the crisis, the crossing analysis emphasizes that systems that do have such a structure could be assigned to a certain degree of centralization imprinted by an unspecified influential entity in the decision making process.