Duration Estimation Method for Highway Construction Work

摘要

How to estimating the duration of construction work is a key factor to consider when scheduling a new highway project. Because highway construction projects are generally completed outdoors, this work is inevitably affected by kinds of random factors. There is the high level of uncertainty involved in highway construction. Current project planning based on traditional duration estimation method cannot clearly ascertain the level of uncertainty. This paper divides the random factors involved in highway construction into two groups: weather conditions and the other factors. According to the different characteristics of these two groups of the random factors, the paper proposes different methods to deal with them when estimating the work duration. The computer simulation technique is used to estimate the effect of weather conditions. The traditional PERT method is used to estimate the effect of the other random factors. Finally, a case study is conducted that confirms the method can be practically used to estimate more reliable durations of highway construction work.