Research on Regional Economic and Industrial Structure Based on Dynamic Shift-share Analysis: An Empirical Analysis of Six Provinces in Central China

摘要

Shift-share analysis is an extensively used mathematical method for research on regional economy and industrial structure at home and abroad. It owns unique advantages as regard to synthesis and dynamics. Nevertheless, current studies at home mainly rest on the application of traditional relative static model with no consideration of time factor. With the introduction of dynamic thinking, this paper constructs dynamic time series to expand traditional model. It not only reveals the contribution each growth component makes to total growth, but exhibits the law of development of each growth component on time series. Through the comparative analysis of traditional shift-share method and the developed dynamic model, the later possesses advantages in three aspects: time span, analysis result and range of application. The dynamic model not only reveals the variation characteristics of each industrial department among various provinces, but offers quantitative analysis on industrial structure and varying trend of competitiveness from year to year. It facilitates the discovery of evolution patterns in six provinces in central China. The "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" period in China is meanwhile a key phase to achieve the "Rise of Central China"; the results of this paper provide scientific basis and direction for central China industrial structure adjustment.