Supply and demand prediction of Shandong coal resources based on mathematical statistics model

摘要

Shandong is one of the important energy resources base in the whole nation. It accounts for 6% of coal output, stands 5th in China and the energy resources consumption stands the first. With the rapid development of economic society and urbanization, there is a great amount of coal resources demand. The balance of coal supply can provide technique support to energy resource development plan of Shandong, and power to economic society development. Based on the main problems in coal exploration and utilization, we accords to the coal output and consumption in these two decades, and takes GM (1,1) model and trendline model to predict the coal demand and supply in the next decade. The result shows that gap of coal supply and demand in Shandong is growing gradually and the dependence on the outside world of coal consumption is rising continuously, which causes the serious imbalance between supply and demand.