The application of time series analysis in precipitation forecast in Wuyuan County

摘要

Based on time series analysis, through analyzing and processing the variation of monthly precipitation volume from 1999 to 2008 of Wuyuan County, Inner Mongolia, the next 5 years' monthly precipitation volume was forecast. Using time series analysis to extract periodic and stochastic items, finally the prediction model was obtained, if the accuracy meet the requirements, it can be used for the forecast. The results showed that Wuyuan county's monthly precipitation series mainly had two cycles, one for 7 years, reflecting the inter-annual fluctuations in rainfall, another cycle length is 1 year, reflecting the uneven characteristics of precipitation during the year.