Scenario development for decision-making in water resources planning and management

摘要

Scenario planning is a useful approach to deal with high levels of uncertainty when planning, developing, and managing water resources systems. Scenarios should highlight many possible alternatives in the future and each alternative future is not equally likely. Probabilistic scenarios are proposed. An example is given to demonstrate the process to generate the scenarios with probabilities, which indicates a promising new insight the technique may provide. Scenarios are able to inform the decision making process, conversely, be applied to test the robustness of strategies. Therefore, an interactive scenario-decision system can be built to support decision making process in water resource planning and management.