Construction and empirical study for the model systems based on the research of regional agricultural economic growth

摘要

This paper selects the representative northwestern province of Gansu to study, Focused on the methods and procedures of the construction of the model system of the regional agricultural economic growth, that is to explore the main factors which affect agricultural economic growth in Gansu by analysis method, and to check the agricultural economic growth whether constitute a causal relation with these factors by means of the Granger causality test, on this basis to determine the magnitude of the impacts by the linear regression method, then use the VAR model to describe the dynamic correlations of the influence of these factors and agricultural economic growth, and finally use the VEC model to describe the law of the long-term equilibrium and short-term fluctuations of the agricultural economic growth in Gansu. The results show that, through the proper understanding to the mechanism and relations of the relevant Model, construct model groups rationally and make it a system, that is a effective method of the scientific study and grasping the law of the regional agricultural economic growth.