Combined forecasting model of urban water demand under changing environment

摘要

The influence of climate change on water consumption under changing economic background has always been kept a important issue by global research institute. Taking Dongguan city as a study object, the influence factors of water requirement are divided into climate factor economic factor and social factor. Water demand forecasting models are established on different influence factors to analyze the response relationship between various influence factors and water demand. Optimum influence factors are chosen on this basis, and water demand forecasting models are established through applying various methods. Least squares (LS) combination forecasting technology is adopted to integrate the results of different forecasting models. The situation and reasons of water demand changes of Dongguan city are proclaimed, the variation tendency of water demand is revealed, and a theoretical foundation for Dongguan City water resources management is provided.