The Hidden Dangers of Runway Excursions

摘要

Overrun accidents continue to occur despite the good intentions of those involved in identifyingand managing risk. Our ability to predict and prevent accidents that “can’t happen” must dependon our willingness to look for the possibilities in what our conventional ways of seeing assure usare failure-proof systems. In 1968 astronaut Frank Borman said it was a “failure of imagination”that led to the Apollo I fire. Today, as economic pressures work to squeeze more capability fromour airplanes, pilots, and runways, the question remains not “Could a runway excursion occur?”but “will it be our inability to imagine risk that contributes to the next runway accident?” Thispresentation will focus on the different ways risk can be measured as well as how the nature ofrandomness can influence our perceptions of safety. By examining the interrelated effects ofprobability modeling, safety assurance practices and current policies and regulations a newdefinition of safety hazards and mitigations will be defined.