首页> 外文会议>Annual conference of the Canadian Society for Civil Engineering 2011 >Low Frequency Variability in Southwestern Canadian Stream Flow: Links with Large-Scale Climate Anomalies
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Low Frequency Variability in Southwestern Canadian Stream Flow: Links with Large-Scale Climate Anomalies

机译:加拿大西南部溪流的低频变化:与大规模气候异常的联系

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This study investigated the impacts of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific-North America (PNA) pattern, West Pacific (WP) pattern and Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) teleconnections on the interannual to interdecadal variability of southwestern (SW) Canadian streamflow anomalies. It is shown that El Nino (La Nina) episodes lead to significant negative (positive) streamflow anomalies during spring and/or summer following the ENSO onset year, the high phase of PNA could produce an El Nino-like streamflow response over the region, and the ENSO-streamflow relationship appears to be modulated by the interdecadal PDO. The interaction between PDO and ENSO was found to be constructive when the two are in phase and destructive otherwise. The potential of using ENSO, PNA and PDO for long-range streamflow forecasting in SW Canada was assessed. While partial correlations with all three indices were found to be statistically significant for several basins, the ENSO and PDO effects appear to be far more important than the PNA pattern. The winter season SOI, which is an indicator of the mature phase of ENSO, shows modest correlations with basins whose flow regimes are dominated by winter rain/spring snowmelt. Conversely, the winter season PDO shows relatively strong correlations with basins originating in the Rocky Mountains, whose flow regimes are dominated by spring-summer snow/glacier melt. The modest SOI-streamflow relationships are partly attributed to nonlinearity induced by the interference from the extratropical sources of variability (i.e. PNA and PDO). Long-range streamflow forecasting strategies for this region should thus incorporate information from the three large-scale climate anomalies.
机译:这项研究调查了厄尔尼诺现象-南方涛动(ENSO),北美太平洋(PNA)模式,西太平洋(WP)模式和太平洋年代际振荡(PDO)遥相关对西南(SW)加拿大年际至年代际变化的影响流量异常。研究表明,厄尔尼诺(La Nina)事件在ENSO爆发后的春季和/或夏季导致明显的负(正)流量异常,PNA的高位阶段可能会在该区域产生类似厄尔尼诺的流量响应, ENSO-流关系似乎受到年代际PDO的调节。当两者同相时,PDO和ENSO之间的相互作用被发现具有建设性,反之则具有破坏性。评估了在加拿大西南部使用ENSO,PNA和PDO进行远程流量预测的潜力。虽然发现在所有盆地上与这三个指数的部分相关在统计上都很显着,但ENSO和PDO的影响似乎远比PNA模式重要。冬季SOI是ENSO成熟阶段的指标,与流域以冬季降雨/春季融雪为主的盆地显示出适度的相关性。相反,冬季的PDO与落基山脉的盆地表现出较强的相关性,落基山脉的流域主要是春夏季的雪/冰川融化。适度的SOI-流量关系部分归因于来自温带变异性源(即PNA和PDO)的干扰所引起的非线性。因此,该区域的远程流量预报策略应纳入来自三个大规模气候异常的信息。

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