Southern California Edison (SCE) is conducting a risk assessment program (Dam Safety Risk Assessment Program or DSRAP) to enable Dam Safety Engineering and Hydro Generation Management to better understand the risks associated with the SCE hydroelectric dams and appurtenant water retaining features. This program is expected to greatly enhance management of the dams with regard to effective power generation, the safety and stability of the dams, and meeting regulatory requirements. As part of that program, SCE is conducting "fragility analyses" in order to assess the probability of increasing levels of damage associated with increasing intensities of earthquakes and floods. SCE requested that Findlay Engineering, Inc. (FEI) conduct such an analysis of Mammoth Pool Dam under earthquake loading, which is the subject of this paper. The purpose of this analysis is to quantify probability and return period versus predicted seismic damage. To effectively consider the performance of the dam under several return periods required analysis using a large number of time history records. This necessitated careful planning of how the analysis was to be conducted to streamline data handling and review of results. This was assisted by using GeoSlope International's GeoStudio suite of programs to interlink finite element (FE) seepage analysis, FE static stress analysis, FE dynamic response analysis and coupled dynamic analysis-slope stability analysis to perform Newmark sliding block analyses on literally hundreds of potential failure surfaces.
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