SAMPLING BASED UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS OF 10 HOT LEG BREAK LOCA IN LSTF

摘要

This paper describes the uncertainty analysis carried out for 10% Hot leg break LOCA of Large Scale Test Facility as a part of IAEA Coordinated Research Project on "Evaluation of Uncertainty in Best Estimate Accident Analysis". The best estimate code used for this analysis is RELAP5/MOD3.2. Initially the nodalisation of the test facility for carrying out the analysis is qualified for both steady state and transient level by systematically applying the procedures lead by Uncertainty Methodology based on Accuracy Extrapolation developed at University of Pisa. Subsequently the uncertainty analysis is carried out using sampling based Monte Carlo approach, which involves the generation and extrapolation of a mapping from uncertain inputs to the uncertain analysis results. The major steps followed in this methodology mainly includes screening sensitivity analysis for input parameters, design matrix generation using Latin Hypercube Sampling, representation of uncertainty analysis results based on best estimate thermal hydraulic code runs and importance /sensitivity analysis using regression analysis. The steps followed have been described in details in this paper.