Can Reserve Additions in Mature Crude Oil Provinces Attenuate Supply-Side Peak Oil?

摘要

More often than usual, oil supply has been modeled only on the basis of resource availability and demand. The impact of strategic interactions between oil producers has largely been ignored or overly simplified. In this paper, we formulate a model that embodies a weak and strong OPEC for varied rates of reserve additions in mature crude oil provinces. With this economic equilibrium model which has the capability to generate a supply side peak in oil production, we show that although estimates of conventional crude oil as in USGS [2000b] may seem abundant. OPEC has the ability to lead to substantial crude oil reserve depletion 4in non-OPEC countries by 2050 given likely depletion rates.