A comparison of three forecasting methods to establish a flexible pavement serviceability index

摘要

Since 1960, the pavement serviceability index has supported the efforts of engineers who make decisions concerning maintenance strategies. The data of pavement surfaces do not belong to a normal distribution. Because the data violate the basic assumptions of linear regression, the pavement serviceability index is not suitable for regression modeling. Many kinds of prediction models with non-statistical foundations have been developed in recent years. To establish a flexible pavement serviceability index, this paper considers a fuzzy regression model, a support vector machine and a genetic programming. Our support vector machine has the highest predictive accuracy of the three methods in this study. The support vector machine uses a hyperplane transform to process interactions among pavement variables