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A plea for AUC confidence intervals in diagnosis models used in gynecology

机译:妇科诊断模型中对AUC置信区间的要求

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Over the last decade many studies in the gynecology literature have been investigating the performance of diagnosis models such as Univariate, Risk of Malignancy Index (RMI) and Logistic Regression (LR). Typical performance results are claimed in terms of sensitivity (SEN), specificity (SPE), accuracy (ACC), Positive Predictive Value (PPV), Negative Predictive Value (NPV), with some studies als including Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve and its Area Under the Curve (AUC). It remains, however, that all these measures do not reflect any sample size and thus making it sometimes difficult to assess with confidence the true performance of these diagnosis models, in particular for small sample size. In this paper, we propose to use systematically, a ROC-based methodology that makes possible to calculate the Confidence Interval (CI) at each ROC point. The methodology is generic and robust to sample size, and based on Probability Density Function (PDF) without any assumption on the distribution. We illustrate its use on 6 recent studies and show that results with the additional AUC 95% CI contour is more adequate to compare the performance of these diagnosis models, especially with studies using different sample size.
机译:在过去的十年中,妇科文献中的许多研究都在研究诊断模型的性能,例如单变量,恶性肿瘤风险指数(RMI)和逻辑回归(LR)。在灵敏度(SEN),特异性(SPE),准确性(ACC),阳性预测值(PPV),阴性预测值(NPV)方面声明了典型的性能结果,同时还进行了一些研究,其中包括接收器工作特性(ROC)曲线和其曲线下面积(AUC)。但是,所有这些措施仍然不能反映任何样本量,因此有时难以自信地评估这些诊断模型的真实性能,特别是对于小样本量。在本文中,我们建议系统地使用基于ROC的方法,该方法可以计算每个ROC点的置信区间(CI)。该方法是通用的,并且对样本量具有鲁棒性,并且基于概率密度函数(PDF),而无需对分布进行任何假设。我们举例说明了它在6项最新研究中的使用,并显示具有额外的95%CI的AUC轮廓的结果更适合比较这些诊断模型的性能,尤其是在使用不同样本量的研究中。

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