Research on Constructing Emergency Event Bayesian Networks Model

摘要

Emergency events have brought lost to the human society. To improve the effectiveness of emergency management, a universal emergency event Bayesian Networks model for predicting dynamics of the event is proposed in this paper. Based on system theory, emergency event is first viewed as a system, and the basic elements of the system are proposed. Then the Bayesian networks model of emergency events is proposed to deal with the uncertainty of the events, and the method of building the Bayesian Networks is introduced. Finally typhoon event is incorporated as an example to demonstrate its effectiveness in practice. The model proposed in this paper can help predict various emergency events using expertȁ9;s knowledge and historic data.