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Chaotic Characteristics of the SSE Composite Index Time Series

机译:上证综合指数时间序列的混沌特征

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This paper studies the Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE) Composite Index, sample period of which spreads from December 16th 1996 to December 31st 2009. The index close prices, its logarithm, its logarithmic first differences, and its log linear detrended series are used. To judge the existence of chaotic dynamical features in time series, the technique of phase space reconstruction is applied. The C-C method, Grassberger and Procaccia (1983) algorithm and the algorithm of small data sets are used to estimate respectively delay times, best embedding dimensions, correlation dimensions and the largest Lyapunov exponents. The result shows that although the largest Lyapunov exponents are different for the index close prices, its logarithm, and its log linear detrended series, they are all positive, which suggests the existence of chaos. However, for the logarithmic first differences, the conclusion of chaos existence can not be drawn, because although the largest Lyapunov exponent is positive, the correlation dimension does not convergence.
机译:本文研究了上海证券交易所(SSE)的综合指数,其采样期从1996年12月16日到2009年12月31日。该指数的收盘价,对数,对数一阶对数和对数线性去趋势序列被使用。为了判断时间序列中混沌动力学特征的存在,应用了相空间重构技术。 C-C方法,Grassberger和Procaccia(1983)算法以及小数据集算法分别用于估计延迟时间,最佳嵌入维数,相关维数和最大Lyapunov指数。结果表明,尽管最大的Lyapunov指数在指数收盘价,对数和线性对数趋势对数上有所不同,但它们都是正数,表明存在混沌。但是,对于对数优先差分,无法得出混沌存在的结论,因为尽管最大的Lyapunov指数为正,但相关维数并未收敛。

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