Highway Transport Volume Forecast Based on Changeable Combination Model

摘要

The forecast of transport volume is the fundamental for transport developments and programming, it is very difficult to forecast transport volume accurately and validly using only one forecast method. The article analyzes the changeable combination forecast modelȁ9;s application on this problem. And future freight volume has been forecasted using this model based on the total highway freight volume and economics of one province. The changeable weight of this method changes with time, it can reflect the change of every forecast method. So this model promotes the forecast accuracy. A practical example shows the effect of thismethod is objective and valid.