System of systems analysis of catastrophic events: A preliminary investigation of unprecedented scenarios

摘要

When catastrophes occur, what key dynamics take place? How do these dynamics affect our technical infrastructure, and how can we understand these patterns of failure in order to better build and operate future technologies and systems of systems? What happens when catastrophes are unprecedented and the known range of emergency response activities is ineffective? This research analyzes multiple catastrophes, viewed through designated lenses, with consideration of how systems of systems fail, as well as the implications for future systems of systems. In this phase we studied two cases, Hurricane Katrina and 9/11, representing threats from natural forces and terrorism. The lens used is the Generic Error Modeling System (GEMS). The GEMS framework helps us to understand types of errors that occur in operational situations and distinguishes among skill-, rule-, and knowledge-based modes. We report on key findings in three areas: (1) the problematic role that technology plays given its fragility and dominance, (2) a coordination and centralization effect, and (3) the failure to consider failure.