On Empirical Study of Environmental Pollution and Economic Growth in China

摘要

In this paper, basing on generalized impulse response function and variance decomposition of VAR model, the authors analyze long-term dynamic effect characteristics between six-type environmental pollution index during 1987 to 2007 and per capita GDP growth. Impulse response analysis result shows that on one hand, economic growth is the main reason to influence China pollution emission;On the other hand, environmental pollution has inverse effect on economic growth, but the latter display lag effect to a certain extent. Variance decomposition result reveals that per capita GDP is the important variable to explain forecast variance of all sorts of pollution emission, but pollution emission contributes relatively less to forecast variance of economic growth.