THE PREDICTION METHOD OF TYPHOON INDUCED EXTREME SEA LEVEL IN SOUTHEAST COAST OF CHINA

摘要

With the trend of global warming, sea level rising and the frequency and intensity of typhoon increasing, how to deal with the typhoon induced storm tide has increasingly becoming a question that people pay more attention. This paper takes Hangzhou Bay as an example, according to the grey-markov chain model and compound extreme value distribution, proposes a method to predict typhoon induced extreme sea level. This method can predict correct trend, and can make sure the rationality of design extreme sea level because of using typhoon process data sampling.