Simulating the UK housing market

摘要

This paper provides an analysis of the current structure of the UK property industry and those drivers of liquidity within that market. The focus of the paper is on property sales, as opposed to rentals, and the factors that drive the constituents of the market to revolve and evolve through being under construction through various state changes to being demolished and their land being again available for further development. The paper describes the main factors that have gone into the production of a System Dynamics simulation of the property industry. The role and potential areas of impact of governmental policy are outlined. The effects of tightening worldwide credit regimes on the UK construction industry are included in the model. The relationships between the credit crunch and the behaviour of the construction industry are identified and are explored. The analysis presented in the paper concludes with potential scenarios for determining the future behaviour of the market.