Modeling the Effect of Climate Change on Sowing Dates, Yield and Yield Components in Various Wheat Cultivars under Different Agro-ecological Zones of Punjab-Pakistan

摘要

Agriculture is highly dependent on weather, and therefore, changes in global climate could have major effects on crop yields, and thus food supply. The study of historical environmental data (1961-1990) of Pakistan indicated a rise in temperature ranging from 0.1 to 0.2 per decade while the change in precipitation from 1.0 to 1.5% per decade was observed for most of the regions. A varietals field experiment was conducted at different locations (arid and semi arid) of Punjab-Pakistan. Experiment was laid out in RCBD, with four replications with four wheat varieties. Field data was used to check the capacity of CERES-Wheat for crop growth and yield simulations under different environments. Under the semi arid conditions, the model simulated phenology fairly with error ranging from 7.31 to 15.60 % in days to flowering and 5 to 38 % in days to physiological maturity. The seasonal dynamics of LAI were acceptably simulated by the model. The model predictions of grain yield were very close to the observed values with error ranging from 0.36 to 3.13%. Over all results showed that model can simulate crop growth parameters as well as yield components fairly well. It can be concluded that selection of suitable cultivar could enhance our yield.