Flash flood forecasting for ungauged locations with NEXRAD precipitation data, threshold frequencies, and a distributed hydrologic model

摘要

A flash flood forecasting system has been developed which combinesdistributed modeling and statistical analyses to produce gridded forecasts of returnperiods. A distributed hydrologic model (DHM) coupled to a threshold frequency(TF) post-processor, DHM-TF, is currently being tested over a Maryland-centereddomain, and has verified well against National Weather Service (NWS) flash floodwarning areas and verification points. The prototype system is currently running inreal-time at the NWS Office of Hydrologic Development (OHD), and efforts areunderway to test DHM-TF at several NWS field offices.