Water Quality Effects of Varying Crop, Fertilizer and Carbon Prices

摘要

Crop and fertilizer prices have increased dramatically in the past few years.These prices, together with existing demand for carbon trading allowances, affectfarmers’ decisions. It is useful to assess the effect of varying crop, fertilizer andcarbon prices on farmers’ decisions, and in turn, the effect of these decisions onsurface water quality, specifically the nitrate load from the watershed. To achieve theobjectives of this study, a mixed integer optimization model incorporating ahydrologic model of a test site is developed. The Salt Creek watershed in East CentralIllinois has been selected as the test site for this study. Simulation results indicate thatthere is a higher tendency for farmers to produce corn in 2007 and 2008 than inprevious years. Consequently, the average fertilizer use in that period is relativelyhigh, causing greater levels of nitrate runoff. Results also indicate that at currentcarbon prices, carbon trading is ineffective in reducing nitrate runoff.