Analyses and Forecast of RMB Real Effective Exchange Rate based on a Basket of Currencies

摘要

There are less RMB real effective exchange rate reflecting relative labor productivity and based on a basket of currencies than we have ordinary watched. The paper sets up RMB real effective exchange rate based on commercial market and capital market The paper probes RMB real effective exchange rate model regarding modified HBS (Harrod-Balassa-Samuelson Hypothesis)as the weights in RMB exchange rate regime of a basket of currencies. After testing the model, it is discovered that the model is efficiently able to resist the attacks, such as our country withdrawing the traded barriers, hotcapitals in the course of opening the capital market and etc.