Based on dempster-shafer evidence conflict theory and fault tree to estimate oil/gas pipeline reliability

摘要

Reliability assessment is one of the important technologies to ensure the safety of the long-distance oil/gas pipeline, the veracity of the reliability impacts the rationality and applicability of the result of the security assessment. In this research, fault tree analysis (FTA) which could be used to compute failure probability is introduced, and it is fit for ensuring the reliability when there is no calculating model and history data, and which acutely subjective probability instead of objective probability. By the D-S theory, unilateral for only one expert could be avoided and making the judge of the many experts more true. However, when the evidence is conflict, classical D-S evidence combination rule could not realize the information fusion, under this way, the other evidence combination rule is introduced and the reliability calculating model is established.