Quantitative Research on the Crowd Gathering Risk in Public Places

摘要

The present paper aims to bring forward a framework for assessing the risk of the crowd gathering in public venues. Published data on accidents in human crowds that occurred over the past decade show that the fatal consequences of crowding can be classified as one of two types: one is type of fatality caused by trampling, the other is by crushing. The possibility that an accident occurs in a given situation is difficult to give a quantitative assessing , for the random nature and uncertainty of such accidents and the haphazardness of multiplicity of the factors involved. However, there are several critical indexes can be concerned. In this paper, the density of pedestrians and the crowd pressure were considered as indexes in deterring the likelihood of the crowd tragedies. Some quantitative research on the density and pressure of the crowd was done , then the corresponding computation models were given respectively. These methods can give some reasonable suggestion on crowd risk precaution.