Research on the Dynamic Safety Assessment about the Logistics System of the Dangerous Goods

摘要

The paper establishes an index system according to the character of the logistics system of the dangerous goods and determines the weight of each index by adopting the analytic hierarchy process (AHP). Since the safety status of system is constantly changeable, and every relevant safety index is also changeable, considering that it is more scientific and rational to use dynamic safety assessment model in safety assessment, this paper adopts the dynamic model which is made from SPA and Markov chain to carry on safety assessment accordingly. We can predict safety status of the system in the future and get connection degree under the stable state by the connection degree in SPA and transformation matrix of Markov. Based on the analyses of the identity, discrepancy and contrary trend, the change of set pair situation caused by the changeable index value can be reflected. Through the new idea of identity and discrepancy trend and pessimistic trend, dynamic safety assessment of the system has been done from a brand-new angle. This can not only help the logistics system of the dangerous goods run safely and reliably and create the safe and comfortable environment of production and life for the people, but also provide the gist to carry on safety management and constitute the relevant standard for the relative department.