Management Instruments which Use Probabilistic Approaches. Case studies

摘要

An actual concept in management is "Knowledge Based Business". It consists of management issues, and it is used to create reports which synthesize the rigor of academic analysis, the practical know-how of experienced managers and the inspiration of original thinkers. These reports, similar to the customized agendas for the board of directors, are designed to be a valuable resource to be used by senior managers, project managers and all members of a management team. To create such accurate, easy to understand and instant generated reports there must be used instruments of analysis consisting of modules of customized software which solve a given problem, these programs being installed in the actual software system of the company. There is a wide range of problems which may be solved using probabilistic approaches. To have accurate results there must be studied which are the most appropriate pseudorandom numbers generators and the according randomness tests. Several original applications were created to study the problem of the pseudorandom numbers which is the basic level of this approach. In the paper are also presented two studies which use the Monte Carlo simulation method for two distinct problems: 1. evaluation of the performance of the actual equipment of the company; 2. evaluation of the coefficient of fidelity for a given product. For each study there was created an original software which process the data and offers friendly output data: reports and graphs. These applications were used to evaluate the convergence of the results in different conditions: different sizes of sets of pseudorandom numbers resulted from different generators. Using these instruments there were identified some of the problems to be solved in order to define the strategy of a given computer aided probabilistic approach.