Research on Project Risk Evaluation Method Based on Markov Process

摘要

The risk management is always an important point and tough subject in the project management. However, the proposal of the general project risk analysis theory provides a new idea to solve the project risk In this paper, Markov chain in absorbable state is used in the project risk management. According to "non-aftereffect" of Markov process, a state transmission probability matrix is built to analyze and predict the project future development state. It also provides a quantitatively feasible method to analyze the project risk. In the end of this paper, a construction company project risk evaluation example is applied to testify the validity of this method.