The northern part of the Bay of Bengal along the coast of Bangladesh is particularly vulnerable to storm surges and coastal flooding generated by tropical cyclonic activity. Sever cyclones in past have caused loss of life and had had devastating effects on infrastructure and agriculture. The human suffering and property damages can be reduced with an effective forecasting and warning of cyclone induced storm surges and floods. This paper presents a methodology based on numerical modeling and data assimilation for forecasting cyclones and resulting floods in the coastal area. Application of the models for the case of the sever cyclone of April 1991 has produced convincing results.
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