Risk- and reliability-based design methods are useful tools in the design of coastal flood defence systems. Applications to date often neglect the effects of climate change on the optimal design of a flood defence structure. In the paper, a method is proposed to incorporate climate change in design optimisation. The method is based on the use of fragility curves to quantify the effects of climate change on the probability of failure of a flood defence structure. The combination of fragility curves with scenarios of climate changes then leads to an estimate of the hazard rate of the flood defence structure. A case study demonstrates the application of the proposed method.
展开▼
