The development of software tools for chemical process quantitative risk assessment over two decades

摘要

This paper reviews the advances in Chemical Process Quantitative Risk Assessment (CPQRA) techniques made over the last 20 years in the light of the widespread development of ICT technology. It examines the present situation and summarises the progress made in a number of areas. These include the steps taken to bring CPQRA up-to-date with 21st Century ICT, use of graphical user interfaces and other new technology such as databases, G1S systems and Internet technology, improvements in the underlying modeling technology, use of the risk analysis results to make decisions and communication of findings to stakeholders. A vision for the ideal CPQRA framework is postulated given the latest technology and a gap analysis is carried out between the vision and the present situation using the leading CPQRA tool SAFETI as a benchmark. The paper concludes that CPQRA techniques have exploited only a fraction of the available advancements in ICT and suggests how the methodology can be further improved.