A model to predict hurricanes induced losses for residential structures

摘要

This paper presents a practical probabilistic model for the projection of annualized damage costs to residential structures due to hurricanes. The estimation of the damage is accomplished by first defining the basic damage modes for components of specific building types and their probabilities of occurrence as functions of estimated wind speeds. The damage modes are then combined in possible damage states, whose probabilities of occurrence are calculated from Monte Carlo simulations carried on engineering numerical models of typical houses. Once this is done it is possible to estimate repair/replacement costs associated with building damage induced by windstorms. The calculation of damage (repair/replacement costs) allows us to estimate building vulnerabilities. Finally, we discuss and illustrate the estimation of expected losses for groups of buildings, including regional expected annual losses, and expected losses induced by a hurricane event. The probabilistic input is based on statistical surveys of the Florida building population, laboratory studies, post-damage surveys, insurance claims data, engineering analyses and judgment, and Monte Carlo simulation methods.