Risk reduction prioritization using decision analysis

摘要

The ALARP principle is applied in many areas to regulate the tolerable level of risk. Usually the principle is operationalized by assigning a value per fatality. A cost-benefit analysis is used to trade the expected value of lives saved with the costs of technical measures required to reduce risks. In sectors in which risks have been reduced over a period of years, it is difficult to pinpoint those areas in which further risk reduction might be sought. In this paper we show how many different risk reduction mechanisms can be considered simultaneously in a decision analysis framework. Using influence diagrams it is straightforward to build mini decision analysis models in which competing alternatives addressing the same risk can be compared. The mini-model decision alternatives are assembled into decision strategies representing the best possible combination of alternatives at different cost/benefit ratios. Disynergies between the different alternatives are highlighted through the model.