On some reliability approaches to human aging

摘要

Two simple probabilistic models of biological aging are considered. The first one is based on the assumption that some random resource is acquired by an organism at birth. Death occurs when the accumulated wear exceeds the initial random resource. In the second model a nonhomogeneous Poisson and doubly stochastic Poisson processes of harmful events are considered. Each event results in death with a given probability or the damage caused by this event can be minimally repaired with a complementary probability. Similar to some demographic models, the mortality deceleration and subsequent leveling-off phenomenon is explained via the concept of frailty. Simple examples are considered.