Integrated product design with uncertainty: a systematic approach

摘要

The early stages of the design process are important and often critical for the success of the later product. Most technical and economical parameters of the product are determined in the conceptual and embodiment design phase. As the data available in these phases are mostly preliminary and uncertain, the need for handling uncertainties in a systematic manner arises. This paper presents an approach which uses statistical methods for describing these uncertainties. It shows how the systematic consideration of uncertainty helps stabilizing and shortening the design process and evaluating technical risks. It briefly illustrates the mathematical background and the modeling process. Finally, in order to describe the procedure the approach is applied to an easy structured example.