A theoretical analysis of the overall mean squared error (MSE) in hybrid video coding is presented for the case of error prone transmission. The derived model for interframe error propagation includes the effects of INTRA coding and spatial loop filtering and corresponds to simulation results very accurately. For a given target bit rate, only four parameters are necessary to describe the overall distortion behavior of the decoder. Using the model, the optimal trade-off between INTRA and INTER coding can be determined for a given packet loss probability by minimizing the expected MSE at the decoder.
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