On the uncertainty of estimating global climate change and its potential impacts on vegetation

摘要

We have developed an Asian-Pacific integrated model (AIM) that is a large-scale model for scenario analyses of greenhouse gas emissions and the impacts of global warming in the Asian-Pacific region. The AIM comprises two main models - the AIM/emission model for predicting greenhouse gas emissions and the AIM/impact model for estimating the impacts of global warming. With this model, we have estimated CO/sub 2/ emissions based on future predictions of socioeconomic and natural factors taking into account various uncertainties. Next, assuming climate change scenarios deduced from AIM/emission and general circulation model (GCM) experiments, primacy impacts on natural vegetation have been assessed spatially.