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Estimating the Number of Latent Factors in High-Dimensional Financial Time Series

机译:估计高维金融时间序列中的潜在因素数量

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摘要

Various methods for modelling financial risk rely on factor models which assume that a smaller number of latent factors are responsible for a significant portion of the observed price dynamics. A critical step for accurate estimation of these factors is obtaining the true number of factors, which is additionally problematic in high-dimensional settings and in presence of heavy tailed data - both of which are common circumstances in financial time series. In this paper we propose a method for estimating the number of latent factors that tackles these issues. To find the number of factors, the method relies on properties of optimal portfolios estimated from the covariance matrices, given by the estimated factor structures. We also introduce a simulation environment for evaluating the selection of the number of factors on high-dimensional data with heavy tailed distributions, and test the performance of the proposed method against some well known estimators such as the Marčenko-Pastur law and parallel analysis. The results suggest that our method works very well and delivers more accurate and remarkably stable results.
机译:对金融风险进行建模的各种方法都依赖于因子模型,这些模型假定较少的潜在因子占观察到的价格动态的很大一部分。准确估算这些因素的关键步骤是获得因素的真实数量,这在高维环境中以及存在大量拖尾数据的情况下尤其成问题-两者都是金融时间序列中的常见情况。在本文中,我们提出了一种方法来估计解决这些问题的潜在因素的数量。为了找到因素的数量,该方法依赖于从协方差矩阵估计的最优投资组合的属性,该属性由估计的因素结构给出。我们还介绍了一种仿真环境,用于评估具有重尾分布的高维数据上因子数量的选择,并针对一些著名的估计量(例如Marčenko-Pastur定律和并行分析)测试该方法的性能。结果表明,我们的方法效果很好,并提供了更加准确和显着稳定的结果。

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