Performance evaluation of single SVM and LSSVM based forecasting models using price zones analysis

摘要

According to the current electricity price forecasting studies, it was very difficult to conclude whether support vector machine (SVM) or least squares support vector machine (LSSVM) is more suitable in solving highly non-linear regression problems with very large time horizon such as mid-term electricity market clearing price (MCP) forecasting. In this paper, a detailed evaluation process using price zones analysis technique is applied in evaluating single SVM and single LSSVM based mid-term electricity MCP forecasting models. Based on much more detailed performance evaluation results and consideration of requirements for machine learning techniques utilizing in longer time horizon and highly nonlinear questions, the proposed paper concluded that SVM is more suitable than LSSVM in mid-term electricity MCP forecasting. Numerical examples using PJM interconnection data are utilized to illustrate the conclusion.