Numerical Algorithm for Gm(1,N) Modeling Based on the Newton-Cotes Formula and Pricing Prediction for Ceramic Art

摘要

In order to improve the prediction accuracy of GM(1,N) model, Numerical algorithm for GM(1,N) modeling based on Newton-cotes formula is proposed, In this paper. Case analysis shows that the prediction accuracy of GM(1,N) model based on newton-cotes formula is more than that of other GM(1,N) models. In addition, a new improving GM(1,N) modeling based on perturbation factor is proposed, in order to overcome the defect for unchanging parameters in algorithm for GM(1,N) modeling, The parameters can be affected by the change of the perturbation factor, and the changed parameters can be adjusted to achieve the optimal predictive value. based on the average relative error index, some time series data are empirically analysized and compared, and there are gained that the fitting precision of this algorithm is significantly improved. thus, the validity of the algorithm is proved, The reasonable application of prediction model of Newton-cotes GM(1,N) based on perturbation factors is of practical significance, In addition, the pricing of ancient ceramic art is predicted with good accuracy.