Prediction of COVID-19 Outbreak in India adopting Bhilwara Model of Containment

摘要

The epidemic of coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) establishes a medical emergency of worldwide concern with an exceptionally high danger of spread and affect the entire worldwide. In India, there has been a steady ascent in the infection with 20,080 cases on April 21 even after a countrywide lockdown. Bhilwara lockdown & containment model flattens the infection curve of COVID-19 cases just within 10 days of initial spread. This paper has described the Bhilwara model and compare the model with India COVID-19 outbreak lockdown along with a prediction for a reduction in the number of upcoming cases with its implementation. In experimentation, the Bhilwara model is simulated using 3^rd-degree polynomial curve fitting techniques, and the mean growth rate of infection is calculated on the COVID-19 spread curve for a group of days depicting the effect of policies defined by Bhilwara administration. Using calculated mean growth rate, COVID-19 spread is predicted with 3^rd-degree polynomial regression utilizing a dataset of all states of India. Results found that with the implementation of the Bhilwara model all over India, the infection transmission rate is reduced to a significant level. Results motivate government authorities to implement new policies and adaption of the Bhilwara model of containment to flatten the COVID-19 outbreak curve.