Review of risk analysis methods for failure scenario in power system under typhoon disasters

摘要

Typhoon disasters may cause power outages in a large area of users. It is quite important to conduct power outage risk assessment in advance and make adequate preparations for emergency decision-making. Starting from the procedure of risk assessment under typhoon disasters: predicting wind speed, calculating wind-induced failure probability, generating fault set, and calculating failure consequences and risks, this paper summarized methods for wind field model, failure analysis methods, and the manifestations of failure consequences in risk assessment. Then we compared the pros and cons for these methods, respectively. The conclusion is that combining software to process higher-resolution wind speed data and considering random wind field, using data mining statistical models to compute and judge fault status and actively calculating pre-typhoon failure risk will become future trend.