Based on random game Petri net model CPS risk assessment and defense decision of distribution network

摘要

Due to the wide application of information and communication technology, modern power grid has become a multi-dimensional and heterogeneous complex system of real-time perception, dynamic control and information service, that is, power grid information physical fusion system (power grid CPS). In this context, this paper proposes a distribution network CPS risk assessment and defense decision method based on random game Petri net model under network attack. To attack in a random game theory for the underlying, using Petri network architecture of the CPS model of distribution network, through the study of the level of network risk analysis refining attack and defense measures, according to the offensive and defensive game proceeds the analysis of the matrix calculation and Nash equilibrium strategy value consideration network risk probability of different stages of change, on the basis of summing up formula calculation method obtained state risk value and develop "the allocation of resources, defense analysis and risk assessment" defense decision-making scheme, then, the better defense strategy is obtained. Finally, a case study was carried out to determine the risk nodes of the system considering the factors of network attack, and the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method were verified by optimizing the cutting load.